Final Thoughts on the COP15

By and large it seems that many (except for Indonesia and China from what I can gather) were under-whelmed by the non-binding agreement/starting point for an international agreement on climate change action. I have seen articles calling it weak, toothless, and without substance.

Although I did not talk with any delegates and did not actually go out to the conference site during the 2 weeks that talks went on, I attribute the lack of success to 2 key factors the issue of accountability and the degree of urgency.

1. Accountability: This factor relates both to developing countries wanting to hold developed countries accountable with regard to emissions reductions and developed countries wanting to hold developing countries accountable with regard to funding for mitigation and adaptation (for example REDD, see prior posts).

Developing countries walked out on final Monday of the conference to protest the attempt to abandon emissions reduction commitments that developed countries had made under the Kyoto protocol. While developed countries know that various types of development aid over the years often does not make it to the project level action on the ground due to weak institutions and in many cases rampant corruption, all of which is politely called 'leakage' in economics-speak.

As such developed and developing countries need assurances that there will be accountability on these issues and doing this in a way that is both adaptive and all encompassing is no small challenge.

2. Urgency: The presentation I attended by a member of the IPCC 4th Assessment (see earlier posts) and the documentary film presentation that UN University sponsored on mitigation and adaptation to climate change in indigenous communities (go to www.unu.org if you want to learn about this) both highlighted that in the global south the time to act is NOW. Places like Bangladesh, the maldives and other small island/low lying countries cannot wait for the current economic crisis to improve in order for the US and other big emitters to act.

While carbon emissions reduction public campaigns in the US and Europe are kindly encouraging people to take one less shower per week, ride bikes more, or eat meat one less day per week...villages all over the global south are being forced, due to changes in their environment, to change their entire lives. Villages are being abandoned as farm land becomes useless, people must move as the desert takes over their farming area, island peoples must find places to relocate to and the funds to do it, not in 25 or 50 years, but now! The urgency for action by the largest emitters is high for these countries and peoples, and ironically they are among the least politically or economically powerful ones in the negotiations. These people (perhaps not the delegates themselves but those living in such precarious places) are seeing their future vanish, cultural traditions connected to their lands disappear, and their hopes for their childrens future fading out as the typhoons, the desert, and drought rush in.

Developed countries seem to have the attitude of don't worry little brother (global south) we will get to handling all this later. But later for many in the global south is now, and action is already taking too long.

The last point I will make is related to a conversation I had with a colleague the other day. She attended a lecture by George Monbiot, a british journalist. He was discussing research that has come out showing that the number of climate change skeptics has increased. Some are attributing this increase to the fact that people are overwhelmed and inundated with scary facts and implications regarding climate change. They feel powerless and helpless to do anything, what can I do as a individual? So their reaction is to reject the notion of climate change because rejecting that major climate changes are happening due to human activity means they don't have to DO anything. Nature will take care of itself, or technology will save us - or whatever their rational is.

This is not a strange or in anyway unrealistic reaction to being overwhelmed. I have done this with regard to various issues in my life at one time or another as well. Its natural because the implications of accepting that climate change is happening and that human activity is contributing to those changes in a significant way means we have to ACT! We have to get off the couch, put down the pizza slice, turn off the tv (and even unplug it!) and DO something. But what? Only you know what you are doing now and if/what more you can do so I won't preach on that.

All I hope is that you do not become overwhelmed and turn away from the direction that much of science is taking us, no matter how scary it is. Ignorance may be bliss, but it can only be a temporary bliss with this issue...