Copenhagen & the Climate Conference Carnival (1)

A lot of people have asked me about what happened here in Copenhagen over the last few weeks with regard to the 15th International Conference of the parties (COP15) for the UN Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In truth starting from around December 10th until December 18th the city has been jammed full of government delegates, business interests (climate change is big business make no mistake), Non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and concerned citizens/climate activist, along with a few trouble makers (as is always the case).

Between the negotiations at the Bella Center (conference area) at the outskirts of the city and all the side events happening by NGOs and various interest groups it was a carnival that some just showed up to say they had been here while it was all going on. I have to admit that my enthusiasm (along with most others in Copenhagen) had seriously dwindled in the weeks prior to the Conference. Climate Change overload was getting to be too much. However, as the conference got started and friends and colleagues from around the world arrived for their various reasons I got swept up in the fever a bit and participated in several side events to the conference that were quite interesting.

The first event I participated in was a 2 day workshop coordinated by The Nordic Mediators and Mediators Beyond Borders. These groups came together to first discuss the type of conflicts they think may emerge from climate change at various levels (i.e. resources scarcity at the local level and spillover effects such as environmental refugees and conflicts emerging due to a lack of adaptation capacity in states with weak institutions and limited resources). The second goal was then to come up with a declaration based on deliberations during the workshop about how mediation could be used to diffuse conflicts and/or be used in conflict prevention.

The most striking presentation of the workshop was by Jørgen Olesen from Århus University and a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). From his discussion I took away 2 key points:

1. That proceeding with mitigation (actions that will reduce the degree of climate change) goals to keep temperature rises to 2 degrees celcius is not sufficient. As a 2 degree rise is going to be too much for many places (particularly in the global south) to manage. As such measures aiming at 1.5 degrees of temperature change or less are urgently needed (and was not accomplished in the resulting international agreement produces last week)

2. That estimates from the 2007 4th Assessment Report are already out of date and underestimate the changes we are seeing already. Olesen emphasized this specifically with regard to the knowledge that has been gained over the last 2 years regarding the changes in the Greenland ice sheet. As a result the sea level rises of 30-40 cm by 2050 that they had estimatesd with a 2 degree C increase in temperature, is a gross underestimate. More realistic estimates are now somewhere in the 1 meter range. This is a significant change and, if true, spells substantial challenges to coastal cities worldwide (including Denmark!).

The other key speaker at the conference was Wangari Maathai, unfortunately this is the best photo I got of her.














Wangari Maathai started the Green Belt Movement in Kenya which has mobilized local women all over Kenya to plant millions of trees to combat erosion and protect watersheds. She won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2004. This was the first time the prize was given to an environmentalist (that I know of) and strongly influenced my desire to connect my work in dispute resolution in San Francisco more strongly to environmental issues through further study.

What is inspiring about Dr. Maathai in my opinion is that she has the ability to understand the larger picture while at the same time has her feet firmly planted on the ground and inspire those around her in a manner that everyone can understand. Much of her talk focused on the crisis that took place in Kenya after the elections a few years ago and how despite pleas from her NGO and others that the international community ignored the worsening situation there. What I took away from this was that the lack of listening to the warnings issued by those in Kenya at the time means the opportunity for intervention with mediation passed by and violence, fueled by political ambitions, ensued.

Another thing that was interesting about this conference was the use of a visual recording team of artists throughout the 2 days. These talented artists were able to encapsulate many of the ideas in text and pictures in an imaginative way. Here are 2 of the many pieces they created based on discussions in the group...




























At the end of the day I realized that I have actually come a long way in my learning about the field of environmental conflict management and am glad that I have invested the time and energy to increase my knowledge of forestry and ecological systems. I didn't learn much new at the conference, however, I got to know some new people who are very concerned about the potential for conflict over environmental issues.

Much work still needs to be done for this nascent organization to better define itself and its capacity to support conflict prevention and peace-building activities but they are well on their way and it was a new source of inspiration for my research.